But Anwar, who turns 53 Thursday, will only start his sentence after completing a six-year jail term for abuse of power imposed in April 1999 -- meaning he could stay behind bars till 2014.

Regardless of the truth, analysts say many Malaysians believe Anwar's claim that Mahathir orchestrated a conspiracy to frame him because he saw Anwar as a political threat.

Mahathir says he was forced to sack Anwar in September 1998 for immorality and denies any plot or any attempt to influence the judiciary.

"Many people are concerned about whether (national) institutions are what they thought they were," said analyst Bruce Gale.

"The whole issue has cast a cloud over everything.

"There will be a substantial number of people who feel politics is a dirty game and that UMNO (the ruling United Malays National Organisation) is not the democratic institution it was once thought to be.

"The Anwar saga has led to a high level of political alienation among young middle-class Malays who see the system as rigged," said Gale, Singapore regional manager for the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy. Some saw no appeal in the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (Islamic Party of Malaysia, or PAS) and were alienated from the political scene.

"Quite a few" other middle-class Malays found PAS appealing, Gale said.

"You might argue there is a danger of a rise in Islamic fundamentalism," he added.

"The saga gives fundamentalists a chance to say the system is totally shot and the only solution is to turn to Islamic fundamentalism as a moral alternative.

"It could have a very powerful appeal to young, idealistic Malays."

Anwar's treatment divided the ethnic Malay community, which makes up just over half the population. PAS was the biggest beneficiary in last November's elections when it more than tripled its parliamentary seats to 27 and captured a second state (regional) government.

Many Malays and Malaysians in general are now inspired by Anwar's struggle, according to Abdul Ghapa Harun, a history lecturer at the National University of Malaysia.

"Even as Anwar is locked away, he will not be forgotten. Anwar will be remembered for the new ideas -- transparency, democracy and accountability -- which he tried to push for," Abdul Ghapa said. "PAS will continue to win over Malay support at UMNO's expense."

Abdul Ghapa said the issue was not Anwar's guilt or innocence "but the credibility of state institutions such as the police and the judiciary.

"People consider Anwar's case a political trial. Mahathir and UMNO will lose credibility and legitimacy.

"They have an uphill task if they want to win back Malay support. They have for a start to change the public perception about the integrity and independence of state institutions."

A.B. Shamsul, a professor at the Malay institute at the National University of Malaysia, said there was "a lot of unhappiness" within UMNO among those who think the saga will lose them votes.

Among rural Malays, he said, the verdict and sentence "enhances that feeling of overkill" and people would see Mahathir as cruel.

PAS would gain short-term benefit from the saga "but it will not translate into votes that easily."

Analysts agree Anwar must await Mahathir's departure from politics before he has any hope of a comeback. If his appeals fail his only hope of early release is a royal pardon -- granted on the prime minister's advice.

Mahathir's current preferred successor is Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, widely seen as personally hostile to Anwar.

But Gale said Abdullah, who lacks a strong support base within UMNO, might eventually seek to shore himself up against internal rivals by appealing to Anwar's supporters.

Shamsul said Abdullah might seek to bring back Anwar "should he feel weak within UMNO."

Anwar might even stage a comeback after serving his full term, Shamsul said.

With remission he could be freed in 2009 but he cannot stand for parliament for five years after that, by which time he will be 67.

Mahathir himself turns 75 in December but is still politically vigorous and shows no sign of handing over the reins.