ANALYSIS by NELSON GRAVES of Reuters in Kuala Lumpur (26.03.2000)

The end of half a century of Kuomintang rule in Taiwan could hold a lesson for Malaysia, where the dominant party faces a split in its Muslim base after 43 years in power.

Though Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad yesterday clinched enough support to ensure him of victory in May elections for leadership of the United National Malays Organisation (Umno) elections, and his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, was well on his way, party critics say their apparent dominance has masked disgruntlement among the party's rank and file.

Dr Mahathir's coalition won three-quarters of the seats in November's general election, giving him an unprecedented fifth five-year mandate.But, hobbled by internal strife after the sacking, arrest and trial of Dr Mahathir's former heir-apparent and finance minister, Anwar Ibrahim, the National Front lost ground to the conservative Islamic Parti Islam se-Malaysia in the Malay heartland.

The only challenger for a top leadership position in Umno, former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, says Malaysia's biggest party could go the way of other formerly dominant parties in the region if it does not take heed.

He cited Taiwan's KMT, Indonesia's Golkar, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and India's Congress party, all of which have lost their former pre-eminence.

"We must learn from the mistakes of others in order to avoid the same fate," he said.

After seeming to have thrown in the towel in the race for the party presidency on Thursday, the 62-year-old Tengku Razaleigh made an apparent about-face on Friday, when he said he was surprised by newspaper reports quoting him as saying he would not run for any top leadership post.

National news agency Bernama on Saturday quoted Tengku Razaleigh as urging Umno members, especially in the youth ranks, to contest posts at all levels to strengthen the party. No one has suggested that Umno, which has led every governing coalition since independence in 1957, is on the verge of losing power.But, underscoring deep concern over the split in the Muslim Malay majority, Malaysia's hereditary sultans, in an unusual move, said after talks last week with the Prime Minister that they would try to mend the divisions.

By last night, Dr Mahathir had the support of 133 of the 134 Umno divisions that have nominated candidates for the party presidency. Tengku Razaleigh has the backing of one division, but cannot now gain the 50 nominations necessary to challenge Dr Mahathir - though he could still muster enough to challenge Mr Badawi.

The Umno elections are critical because the party president traditionally serves as prime minister, and the deputy president as deputy prime minister.

Umno's Supreme Council issued a "recommendation" in January that Dr Mahathir and Mr Badawi be re-elected unopposed, which critics said was a sign of weakness.

Tengku Razaleigh's message was echoed by Lim Kit Siang, national chairman of the opposition Democratic Action Party.

Mr Lim said the sidelining of Tengku Razaleigh within Umno "probably marks the real beginning of the end of Umno, as foreshadowed by the Kuomintang's fate in Taiwan after voters overturned 55 years of KMT rule".

"The message . . . is that there could be no hope for internal party reforms in Umno and even less hope for political and socio-economic reforms on the national stage by the present Umno leadership," Mr Lim said.