updateone

AYR BY-ELECTIION UPDATE

Monday 31st January Number One

Date of the Election

The Election date has been announced. It will be held on Thursday 16th March - which is still about 7 weeks away. The date was set by Sir David Steele the Presiding Officer of the Parliament, who expressed a desire for further by-elections to be held on a Saturday instead of a Thursday. The date will have some advantage to Labour as it follows their conference and budget within the Parliament.

State of the Parties

The following have announced candidates for the by-election so far:

Conservative - John Scott

Labour - Rita Miller

Scottish National Party - Jim Mather

Scottish Socialist Party - James Stewart

Winners and Losers

Labour are still having a tough time at present with the scandals over Donald Dewars 'advisors', which opposition parties will seek to maximise to the full. The other issue is that of the repealing of Section 28. Again opposition parties will use this to their advantage, but only the Conservatives actually oppose the repeal of the section, with the SNP stating their support for the change if not the way it is begin handled.

SNP campaign got off to a start with leader Alex Salmond appearing in the constituency to support the candidate Jim Mather. Yet it is difficult to see how the SNP can win, as Prof. John Curtise stated on 'Hollyrood' (BBC2), the SNP may gain support from disillusioned Labour voters but are less likely to gain from Conservative voters. And as Ayr has a mass of Conservative voters it is unlikely for them to achieve a victory.

The SSP also are making a presence - even though they face the same problems of the SNP in gaining support. Candidate Jim Stewart and the party leader have been doing the rounds of the local papers as well as a public meeting in the Town Hall.

A loss for Labour (and perhaps a gain for the SSP) is that of Alex Smith. He has left the Labour Party after not being selected to be a candidate on Labour's short list. He promises a left-wing back lash (where this is in Ayr they did not state), and has criticised the party machine in 'new' Labour.

However a gain is clearly Rita Miller who is Labour?s candidate. A rising star in Labour she has the capability of being a good MSP, but really does face a formidable challenge to be sent to Hollyrood. With so many opposition parties, the loyal Conservatives may be the strongest support

Facts and Figures

A system 3 poll for the Herald Last week had some bad news for the Conservatives, they have dropped from 9 to 8%. Without the popular Phil Gallie as candidate then things may well be difficult for the party to definitely capture the seat.

A Mori poll for the Sunday Herald last week showed voting intentions as follows:

Conservative10%

Labour 41%

Lib Dems 10%

SNP 34%

Green 9;1%

Other 27%

(NB: I am aware that this comes to 123% - I think the 'other' category is wrong)

The poll was concerned with the debate over Section 28. It showed that most people believe Scotland to be a tolerant society, and that children should be taught tolerance in relation to homosexuality (though not for it's promotion ' and the results did show a support for keeping the Clause, especially with respect to 'promotion'). For more see http://www.sundayherald.com/new/section28poll.htm.

In the Scotland on Sunday the Scotland 2000 poll asked who would be the best 'president' in an independent Scotland - Dewer came first, followed by Sean Connary then Salmond. If nothing it demonstrates that people do have some trust of Dewer.

Ayr Lines!

(A little guide to Ayr!)

The constituency of Ayr includes Prestwick and Troon, although not the districts of Alloway or Kincadston - which are part of the town of Ayr!
Ayr was one of the towns to bid for City Status for the millennium. Ask locals and no one will of heard of it, but the councillors did feel this was essential for Ayr and it's people
Ayr is conservative (with a small 'c'). The Fort and Seafield Community Council is a fine example of this. Their ward (which seams to cover the whole of the town centre and seaside areas to them) is in central location for the town's development. Yet they and others, do seam to oppose most developments in the town. E.G. any plans to develop the sea front - after all tourists love to come and sit on a large expanse of grass for 5 hours then go home again.
The town has it's Flower Show, Holly Fair, Prestwick fete, but now has a new feature in it's cap - yes it is the only town to boast a Cartoon Festival (a Mickey Mouse idea if ever there was one'

com.entators News

For those wondering who the honest men and bonnie lassies of Ayr are to contact if they want MSP advise, Labour are happy to oblige. Not Phil Gallie the regional MSP, no? Go to Sandra Osborne MP!! She has said she will be happy to help until the seat is filled (Note: Mrs Osborne has absolutely NO ability to do this, she is of Westminster not Hollyrood, that really is a news twist to the West Lothian Question).

The next edition will be Monday 7th Febuary.

Constant updates at: www.geocities.com/jinxco

Gavin B, Jan 2000

APOL Publication,