Opinion Polls

Daily Record - 9th March

The Daily Record carried out a poll in the Ayr constituency, and interviewed 1,010 people. This means there is a low margin of error and can be seen as good deal of confidence. The results it found were:

LABOUR              17%
CONSERVATIVE 18%
TORIES                26%
LIB DEMS              1%
SSP                         1%
UNSURE                37%

How accurate is this poll. Well for starters, there is no account for the other 5 candidates, and no mention of those who refused to say. There is also a rater large 'Unsure' catagory. The Record asked those who were unsure, who they voted for last time. The results of this were

LABOUR     77%
LIB DEMS    4%
TORIES      11%
SNP              7%

The poll would surgest that a large number of Labour voters are unsure as to who to vote for. The problem is this. If they switch to the SNP (very possible as there is a high degree of vote switching between the two, especially at first and second ballot elections), then the SNP can win. If however they simply stay at home and don't vote. A Conservative victory is there. Indeed tacktical voting is nessesary. Hence, on this poll, a good turnout would favour the SNP, whereas a low turnout would favour the Conservatives (as it has in the past).

SYSTEM THREE - The Herald - 7th March

A poll has indicated an increase in support for the Scottish National Party ahead of the Scottish Parliament Ayr by-election on 16 March.

The System Three poll for The Herald newspaper show figures for party preferences. Just over 1,000 people were interviewed in 40 constituencies during the last week in February.

The results suggest an increase of five points to 36% for the SNP with Labour falling back by the same amount.

The Conservatives and the Lib Dems are each up by one point to 12% and nine per cent respectively.

Meanwhile the minority parties including the Scottish Socialists and the Scottish Greens took six per cent of the vote.