COMMENT

A Default Result?

Will any party increase their vote and take the lead over others, or is it more to do with how much the other parties can eat away at others votes...
As Ayr is a very close majority seat, with many candidates standing it makes rediction very difficult. This combined with the two supportes being largely Conservative and Labour sets it aside from many other seats in Scotland. However the part that wins may not be the one who just attracts the most votes, but also will depend on how many votes can be taken away from the opposition parties. Realistically there are only three parties that could win the seat, Labour, Conservative and SNP. For the Conservative to win they need a left-wing vote split. The need the majority Labour vote to be split amoung the SNP, SSP and parties such as the Greens. As the SNP and SSP are well known and well supported parties they may easliy gain votes off Labour. However the Conservative have to watch. It is unlikely that they will be able to draw support way from other parties, and they themselves face problems. The UK Indp party and Pro-Life are also standing, both right-wing parties and could damage them. So to is the possibility of the less right-wing supporters of the Conservatives shifting away to the Lib Dems, especially as the Tories are more right-wing today. If these two factors happen then it leads the way open for the SNP. They tradditionaly are able to get their vote out, and are able to maintain a loyal support and if they take votes away from Labour and some Tory supporters move (though very unlikely to the SNP) then they it is possible they could win by default. For Labour they face problems, they need to maintian support (and with only a majority of 25 and so many candidats it is inevitable that they will lose some votes - all parties do in by-elections), however it is unclear where they could gain support from. SNP are contented and unhappy Tory supporters have already defected to new Labour in May 1997.
It means tactical voting is vey important. Voting SNP does not nessesarly mean a Conservaive victory as Labour will claim, and a Labour vote may not be enough to keep Labour in control. The developments of the smaller parties mean that there is more chance for votes to be taken away. If the SNP win it's because the Conservtive and Labour votes falter - if Conservatives win it's because Labour and SNP support is split and if Labour win it's because less of their supportes move to the smaller, issues based parties.
It makes it all very complcated...

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