KARACHI, KARACHI, KARACHI. What is happening to this City and what will the next few days and weeks bode for this City and what will be the future of this City ? All over Pakistan, this City is a must topic for discussion and debate. Armchair theorists have worked out their own scenarios about a different set-up for Karachi. Many envision a "foreign hand" (read : America) out to make a new country on the pattern of Hong Kong or Singapore. Those who do not subscribe to the views of MQM accuse this representative party of 90% of Karachiites as a tool in the hands of the Indian RAW or that the supreme head of this organization is in cahoots with the anti-Pakistan forces to separate this metropolis from Sindh. There is one faction who wields the notion that the present government too is not keen to put an immediate end to the Karachi imbroglio and that all steps taken by this government were and are to aggravate the already volatile situation.

Nevertheless, there has to be a logical end to this problem. It cannot be prolonged because this is not some luxury that this nation can afford and also because it is tearing the country’s unity fabric. It is for this very reason that a theory is expounded that circumstances are and have been created to bring sanity to this City and to help ameliorate the sufferings of this troubled port City’s denizens.

The Final Countdown has begun ! With effect from December 15, 1995 and for a period of 90 days. The analysis of recent events is necessary to understand and justify the theory that the Karachi problem will to a great extent be resolved within the time frame ending March 15, 1996. The events are as follows :

THE AMERICAN CONCERN : The December 12, 1995 statement of US State Dept. Spokesman, Nick Burns, came out strongly against the continued violence in the City and also condemned in unequivocal terms the extra-judicial killings, extortion, and custodial deaths by security forces. Earlier on December 06, 1995, Robin Raphel, Assistant Secretary of State, said at a hearing in Congress that "Pakistan also faces on-going violence in Karachi, resulting from legitimate political grievances which have been enormously magnified by extremism and lawlessness." Of course, the government took the Burns statement as an interference in the country’s internal affairs. However, now that the US has come out with the "concern" statement, and since it has urged the government to start serious negotiations with MQM, there is every likelihood that the Bhutto government will pay heed. As Altaf Gauhar wrote in his "Thoughts and afterthoughts" column in The Nation on December 22,1995, "The US, as the sole super power, is now in a position to dictate the terms on which it would be prepared to support, indeed guarantee, not just the existence of the government, but the economic growth of a country and its regional security." While many in the country slammed the US statement, Mushahid Hussein of PML (Nawaz), considered this as a "no-confidence" in the Bhutto government. He said this concern "amounts to a public warning to the PPP regime." The pragmatic feeling is that this statement could very well be a catalyst in bringing the PPP and MQM to the negotiating table.

BABAR’S ABSENCE FROM KARACHI : The Interior Minister used to come to Karachi every other day to continue his self-professed role as the Defender of Pakistan and the Conqueror of Khajji. He would hold regular press briefings and would espouse his hatred for MQM ad nauseum. Just like the late FBI Chief John Hoover who saw a "Red under every bed", the General also saw or made it seem that every terrorist act, every dacoity, every killing was the handiwork of Altaf Hussein. He ensured that things remained agitated and that the Karachiites would continue to suffer. He came up with an idiotic decree that all cellular phones, card phones, and pagers services be suspended as these were instrumental in facilitating the terrorist activities of whoever he thought were the desperadoes. Half a year has gone by, and this General has not been able to achieve results. In the meantime, the industrial and business community, the doctors and the CPLC, the housewives and the salesmen, have all suffered due to this asinine dictates of someone far removed from reality.

As things now stand, the Interior Minister has kept himself out of Karachi, and has not been too vociferous in denouncing MQM with the same venom as before. Maybe he has accepted the fact that the his policy lacked the punch and was more clouded with obstinacy and inflexibility.

ECONOMIC DISASTER : The Karachi disturbance has devastated the economic situation. In 1992-93, the City’s share was more than 2% in GDP growth. Today it is in fractions. The KCCI has estimated that the daily loss to the economy due to strikes is about US$ 38 million. This means that around US$ 1.25 Billion have already been the loss in 1995. The Ministry of Finance is looking towards a 6.5% growth in the GDP, i.e. nearly US$ 3.6 Billion. If the present trend is allowed to continue, one can say good-bye to any tangible growth in the GDP. At the same time, it is to be noted that of the total income tax of Rs 26,572 million collected in the last fiscal year, Karachi contributed Rs 18,500 million, which is 69.6%. Furthermore Karachi’s share was 99% of the total amount that the whole province of Sindh paid as income tax.

The political impasse has been putting a heavy toll not only on this City’s economic picture, but also to the nation’s economic progress. At the same time, the effect on foreign investment in Karachi is also being affected. The head of Union Texas bluntly told the President during his meeting with the American Business Council in June that "foreign businessmen are now becoming reluctant to invest under the prevailing circumstances and the only option left for them is to take a plunge in other countries." Mary Kennedy, the US Consul General, while talking to industrialists at the SITE Association of Industry in October, declared in clear terms that the US investors have lost interest in funding projects due to civil strife in Karachi. Lee Coldren, the Director of the Pakistan Desk at the State Dept. In Washington, who was also present at this meeting said that although "foreign investment is not a panacea of all ills, yet the influx of foreign investment in power generation, infra-structure development, and other sectors could help solve crucial issues. While talking to the KCCI, the German Consul General, Hartmut Scheer, stated that the Karachi problem has discouraged German investors from coming here and that there "is a general feeling among the foreign investors that Karachi is no longer safe to invest."

THE NEW COAS TAKES CHARGE : The 13th Chief of the Army Staff has been nominated. General Jehangir Karamat will obviously have his own agenda and will like his own imprimatur on matters related to the defense and security of the country. There has been a rigid and tough policy in dealing with the volatile elements in Karachi. After the end of Operation Cleanup, the Rangers took over from the Army. Unfortunately, the initial euphoria on the introduction of the Rangers to provide security and sanity died down and there have been many negative reports over the role of the Rangers and other law-enforcing agencies. There is an immediate need for a re-definition of the role of the Rangers. It is fast losing respect among the citizens.

THE GOVERNMENT IS VERY ANTI-MQM : The statements issued by the Prime Minister, her Information Minister, the Sindh Chief Minister and his Cabinet with utmost regularity, have all thru the past months aggravated the situation and they keep blaming the MQM for just about every evil in the City and the Province. The result has been a deep polarization between the urban and the rural population, between the Sindhi-speaking denizens and the Urdu-speaking residents, and between the ethnic-oriented political parties. This has been the worst dis-service to the country and will take years to heal., if at all. Moreover "me-patriot-you-traitor" incantations are another facet of this juvenile posture by those who rule the roost.

In light of the above, there is this viewpoint that things have to improve cause if they don’t get better soon, then it may be really too late. There is an immediate need to start the talks between PPP and MQM. However, the composition of the government team needs to be changed as this present team is composed of three Karachi MNAs who can never win if MQM participates in an election. It is proposed that the talks be held "in camera", in Jeddah preferably, on the basis of the PLO-Israeli talks held in Oslo, Norway which brought about the desired peace in that particular area of the Middle East. The talks be observed and conducted by representatives from USA, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. Secondly, the government hierarchy and the sycophants and also the MQM should refrain from issuing provocative statements against each other. This will bring some sanity to the problem and will cool down the tense atmosphere of hate, revenge, and discord. The custodial deaths and extra-judicial killings must stop and there has to be an end to frequent strike calls and violent capers.

Meantime, it is hoped that the new COAS will strive for more flexibility in the Army’s position regarding efforts to bring about peace and discipline in the City. It is hoped that the Armed Forces will also tacitly urge the warring parties to show compassion and get into a serious undertaking for reconciliation. The government must accept that MQM is the representative party of the City and that the facade under the garb of the KMC Advisory Committee must be disbanded. The killings of Ehsan Ali Shah and Nasir Hussein, although gory, brutal, and inhumane, has given an opportunity to both the parties to understand the gravity of the situation and help end these gruesome events in the future. And most of all, the government must accept that MQM is the democratic representative of the urban Sindh and that whatever it may think of Altaf Hussein, the MQM top man rules over the lives of the Mohajir community. A fact is a fact ! And the most important thing is for Naseerullah Babar to honorably tender his resignation and fade away into the sunset. His Karachi policy has been a disaster and there is no justification for a continuation of this failed venture. He should vividly remember the last days of East Pakistan.

Moreover, the economic problems have multiplied in the last few months. The run on the foreign exchange accounts, the pleadings before the IMF for another injection of US$ 600 million, the increase in bank defaults, the impending disaster of bankruptcies of industries and commercial concerns, the continued plunder of the financial institutions by political forces, the decision by foreign investors to stay away from Karachi, the non-arrival of foreign importers into Karachi resulting in a drop in exports, the frequent closure of industries due to strikes, and inspite of all these stoppages, the industries paying the bank mark-up and the KESC fixed charges, and the feeling that somehow there is a bias against the Karachi business and industrial concerns in matters related to the government agencies and departments.

The way in which the Karachi citizens are behaving on a day to day basis, the way in which they are quietly succumbing to the forces who are out to destroy their City, and the way they are silently allowing the ruination of the City, justifies the phrase that "when rape becomes inevitable, one should relax and enjoy it." The leading intellectuals and elite of Karachi come out with advertisements and cries for a Citizen’s Voice. But who listens to them and what has been done ? HELPLINE of Hamid Maker has come out with its Citizen’s Charter. Shahid Hussein of the World Bank wrote in Dawn in its December 12, 1995 issue, that "people who think and care for Pakistan must mobilize a constituency for political and economic reform." However, the masses have become subdued and there seems to be no way to rouse them into action. Do they need the Americans to come and solve their City’s problems ? As it is many Pakistanis can’t stand the government’s decision to hand over three berths at Karachi Port to the American Presidents Lines, anyway.

So, what it boils down to is that the circumstances look favorable for a solution to the political and economic imbroglio that Karachi is facing. The Final Countdown has begun. All it needs is a pragmatic, purposeful, and sincere push. From Benazir Bhutto, Altaf Hussein, and the 12 million residents who want their City to become once again a peaceful, secure, and bustling city. Soon !