XXI. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF EMERGENCE OF AN INDEPENDENT KURDISH STATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

It is asserted that Kurds constitute the majority in some regions of Eastern and Southeastern Turkey, Northwestern Syria, the North and the East of Iraq and the West of Iran thus that area should wholly be called "Kurdistan".109 The demographic and geographical distribution of Kurds in the Middle East, their differences and commonalities in religious, linguistic and sectarian aspects, their sociological characteristics and their political tendencies are separate issues which require extensive research. Nevertheless, in consideration of historical background of the region, past and present policies of the states concerned and the tendencies of the Kurds, a decision could be reached on the likelihood of the emergence of an independent Kurdish state.

First of all, demands for independence have not been heard from the Kurds themselves. Though in October 1992, the "Kurdistan National Assembly" in the territory where Iraqi government could not implement its sovereignty unanimously-with the consensus of Talabani and Barzani groups-issued their goal of "federation within a democratic parliamentary Iraq",110 never-ending bloody intertribal and factional conflicts due to the lack of nationhood prove that Kurds’ ability and/or enthusiasm to unify under their own political authority are not adequate.

The stand taken by Syria, Iran and Turkey for the protection of the territorial integrity of Iraq has also reduced the possibility of an independent Kurdish state. One of the reasons that is given for not allowing an independent Kurdish state is that the mountains between Iran and Iraq provide the two countries with a defensible strategic frontier which would not make strategic sense to move the boundary. Also, it is thought that no government will willingly surrender control of oil and water reserves in the region.111 In addition to these strategic aspects, social realities, as described in this study, do not facilitate emergence of an independent Kurdish state.

It is contended that an independent or federated Kurdish state in Northern Iraq dependent on Turkey for its security would not have irredentist claims on its northern neighbor. Also in this view, Western countries could provide security guarantees for Turkey and use their influence on Syria and others to end their support of separatist groups in Turkey.112 But it is difficult to agree that Western countries share Turkey’s security concerns as their unsupportive approach was displayed during Turkey’s military operation in March 1995 against the PKK bases and terrorists in Northern Iraq where no state’s sovereignty was applicable.113

109 See the map in Izady, The Kurds..., p. 4.

110 Bengio, "The Challenge to...", p. 80.

111 David McDowall, A Modern History of Kurds, (London: I.B. Tauris, 1997) as quoted in "Book Reviews, A Modern History of Kurds", The Middle East (March 1997), p. 32.

112 Barkey, "Turkey’s...", p. 67.

113 Wyllie, "Turkish Objectives...", p. 307.