3/9/2000  Message of the Day
Christopher Duvall, Rutgers University Meteorologist

Precipitation:

Howdy!  There is a moderately strong Low spinning it's way to 
the northeast over Michigan and the Great Lakes as of Thursday 
morning.  Depending upon the Low's location in relation to the 
Lakes, some areas may see up to eight inches of snow through 
Thursday night, prompting a few winter storm warnings around 
the Michigan/Great Lakes area for early Thursday.  

The Great Lakes Low is moving to the northeast because there 
is a High in Canada north of North Dakota and another High down 
by Florida. Lows move around Highs, so the Great Lakes Low can't 
move northwest into the Canada High, southeast into the Florida 
High, or back to the southwest into the next Low coming through 
the Rockies.  So its only move is to spin its way to the northeast. 

Areas of the Rockies may also see significant snowfall thanks to 
the same Low that gave California some wet weather on Wednesday, 
but as of midnight Wednesday there were no warnings.  The Rockies 
should begin to see more sunlight Friday but another storm system 
is expected to threaten California by the end of the weekend.  
Otherwise, patchy fog may develop in the humid, still air in the 
morning along the Gulf Coast.

If you can access infrared satellite images, you may want to look 
for the difference in temperature with time of the Atlantic, the 
Gulf, and the land surface of the United States in the morning and 
the evening hours.  Which one is cooler- land or water- in the 
morning?  In the evening?  Why do you think this is so?

Temperatures:  The New York City area is expected to break records 
for high temperatures Thursday afternoon.  I wouldn't be surprised 
to see 75 degrees F or higher in N.Y.C..  The record for stations 
in the area are around 67 degrees F for this same day.  Like one 
New York forecaster said with regard to today's record, "Bye-bye." :-)


Challenge:  Can you think of two reasons why breaking a temperature 
record in N.Y.C. would be more significant than breaking the record in a 
western city like Phoenix?  

Something to think about:  Breaking the daily temperature record tends 
to be even more significant in the Northeast U.S. than elsewhere in 
the country because 1.) The temperatures tend to be extremely high or 
low *less* often in coastal urban areas than in flat, drier, more 
undeveloped areas like Phoenix and the Great Plains, and 2.) the 
Northeast U.S. cities tend to have a longer history of records to break, 
since the U.S. military bases and general weather enthusiasts who 
recorded observations over 100 years ago resided primarily in the eastern 
third of the U.S..  So for example, a 200-year-old temperature record in 
New York City would likely be broken less often than a 100-year-old record 
in Phoenix.  

I will be available online if anyone has any questions.  - CD 3/9/2000