YEAR 2000 KNOCKOUT!!
THE FACTS
Just what is the Year 2000 date problem?
The year 2000 (Y2K) problem was caused by storing years using only 2 digits instead of 4 to identify it
( 97 instead of 1997). When the century rolls over, most computers won't be able to tell the difference
between 1900 and 2000. As a result, calculations will produce errors because 99+1 doesn't equal 00,
and because 00 < 99. This is true for both hardware and software.
Though the cause is simple, rectifying it is difficult due to the wide range of software languages, applications,
microchips, etc., currently in use today. Just one of the reasons it's so difficult to fix in time, is the sheer number
of date formats in common use. Everybody stores dates in different ways, usually multiple ways.
Some examples of the ways dates are stored:
As Ordinal/Julian (YYDDD) [The Ordinal day starts at midnight, the Julian starts at noon], and
Gregorian (DDMMYY, MMDDYY, YYMMDD). These are the most common formats.
As numbers, characters (letters or symbols), or a combination of both.
With 4 positions (MMYY), 5 positions (DDDYY), and 6 positions (YYMMDD) in different
sequences. The largest identified so far is a 64 position number.
With a century prefix, or without.
Delimiters (or separators) may be used (MM/DD/YY or DD.MM.YY for example)
As binary numbers consisting only of 1's and 0's.
With "+" and "-" signs (as in days of the week).
They can be truncated (e.g.,"-6" for any Saturday, "-15" for the 15th of any month, etc.)
Other (unusual) formats discovered are --
CYYMMDD - C represents the two first digits of a century. (For example -- 0 is 19, and 1 is 20)
SSSYY -- where SSS represents the season
What will be affected?
Embedded systems are devices used to control the operation of equipment, machinery, etc. All are
computers. The simplest of these is the single microprocessor or "microchip". It may itself be packaged
with others. In some cases application software can be added to the chip at a later stage, after which it's
not possible to make additional changes. This is also known as "firmware".
Embedded systems can't be reprogrammed. The processors, circuit boards, and sometimes the whole
unit needs to be replaced.
Some examples of embedded systems are:
Basic services and utilities
water and sewage systems
electric power stations
power grid systems
emergency monitoring and alert systems
flood and disaster control systems
waste disposal
natural gas delivery/metering
telephone systems (including PBX and switching)
cable television systems
telephone systems
communication and entertainment satellites
telephones and cell phones
thermostat controls
televisions
microwave ovens
certain wristwatches
personal computer
fax machine
answering machine or voice mail
VCR
security system
automated lighting, landscaping, etc., systems
cable television service
Office systems and mobile equipment:
telephone systems (including voice mail, forwarding, etc.)
mobile phone systems
fax machines
copiers
time recording systems (e.g. VCR's, time clocks, etc.)
still and video cameras
backup lighting and generators
fire control systems
environmental safety systems
heating and ventilation systems
programmable thermostats
lifts, elevators, escalators
security cameras
security systems (including badge readers, gates, etc.)
safes and vaults
door locks
vending machines
automated teller machines
credit card systems
hospital monitoring equipment
defibrillators
pacemakers
backup systems
airplanes
trains
buses
marine craft
automobiles
air traffic control systems
Global Positioning System (GPS) {which have a particular problem. See }
signaling systems (e.g. railroad switching)
radar systems
traffic lights and controllers
street lights
ticketing systems/machines
reservation and scheduling systems
car parking and other meters
manufacturing plants
oil refineries and related storage facilities
bottling plants
automated factories
weight scales
conveyors
emissions monitoring
waste removal and disposal systems.
hazardous waste and pollution monitoring/control systems
* Embedded dates
An embedded date is used as a component of a longer character string to uniquely identify a particular
item or event. Examples of embedded dates are -- invoice numbers, parts of policy numbers, license
numbers, merchandise sales tags, storage bin tags, transaction numbers and date stamps.
Date stamps, for example, are used on such things as transaction tracing and backup recovery. They're
automatically incorporated in a record by the system. Examples of items that make use of date stamps
are blood donations, prescriptions, medical records, etc.
Another date problem is created when dates are used at the beginning of an identifier. For example,
some applications suppress leading zeros in number fields. This can cause a miscalculation because 00
may be treated as null data and may be rejected, or result in zero divide errors.
Hardware timers, system clocks and operating system clock are all vulnerable to year 2000 problems.
The processor may need to be replaced (see Embedded Systems). Buying a computer in 1996 or later
does NOT guarantee they are year 2000 compliant. They may have been built using a BIOS (system
software) manufactured much earlier.
{Author's note--my company bought 10 Toshiba laptops which we were told were Y2K
compliant. After testing them (anyway), we discovered 4 were not compliant. The reason? They used a
different chip from the other 6. We sent the 4 back for replacements. Lesson learned--don't take anyone's
word on the compliancy of their product--test it.}
System software includes operating systems, databases, teleprocessing monitors, utilities and tools. Most
system software is already compliant or will be; some are not scheduled to be released until 1999.
Some foreseen Y2K problems:
Some vendors may declare their software "unsupported", which means they won't fix them.
DOS is more likely to have problems. OS/2, UNIX, Mac, Windows 95 and Windows NT operating
systems can handle the new century dates. Windows for Workgroups 3.11, Windows 3.1 and earlier
(16 bit) will encounter problems.
Applications are the programs you use, such as Word, Excel, Paradox, etc. There are many factors that
can cause such software to succumb to Y2K problems apart from the application software itself.
Programs that run on windows should be replaced after release of Windows 97.
Some foreseen Y2K problems:
Application software compliance is irrelevant if the system software and utilities that support it are
not compliant.
Some vendors may no longer be in business.
Some vendors may fail or quit before the year 2000.
If you've not bought, or have let lapse, maintenance for the applications you're using, you may not
be able to obtain necessary upgrades. Even if you have kept up your maintenance contracts, the vendor
still may not have the knowledge or staff to fix the problem.
Some vendors have already declared various products "unsupported". This means the vendor will
not fix it.
If vendors tell you they are fixing the code, ask when. You may need changes earlier than the
vendor plans to release them.
Some Windows versions of Sidekick, Quicken, Excel and Lotus 1-2-3, do not handle dates in
2000 the same way. The inconsistencies will cause problems. Older programs and the Windows 3.x
calendar function have a problem with century roll-over, which causes problems with data sharing with
other applications.
We have tons of data stored on floppies, diskettes, tapes, etc. Also duplicated data, and copies of copies.
This information is usually stored by date sequence. Many of the programs that handle physical resources
-- such as tape and disk management, scheduling and communications -- will not work with a 4 digit year.
Most of us must retain data for at least 7 years to meet IRS audit requirements, for example. The Y2K
problem is not recognized as a force majeure. "The computer ate my data", will not protect you in
legal situations.
Contact your providers now to determine on which ones you can rely. Get proof in writing. Don't take
anyone's word that they are 2000 ready if your livelihood may be at stake.
Review your current vendor/supplier contracts and amend those you deem necessary.
Make sure future contracts include statements to relieve you of responsibility should your supply chain
or delivery mechanisms break down.
How can it affect my business?
Your business may rely on goods and services from other businesses. If they can't deliver on time, or at
all, will you be able to continue?
What happens if your customers' banks can't process their checks, credit accounts, etc.? How long can
you go with little or no income? What about your bank?
If your bank encounters problems, how will you pay your creditors? How understanding will they be if
they're experiencing the same problems?
Your business interruption insurance -- if you have it -- will probably not cover any Y2K problems you
may encounter. It's important to contact your carrier to verify this (get it in writing).
You may experience Y2K problems internally. If your payroll and other accounting systems fail, how
long will it take to fix? How will you pay your employees?
Your phones, electricity, heating/refrigeration, security, etc., could fail.
The legal implications are greater or lesser dependent on the size and type of business. However, four classes
of litigation are anticipated:
Litigation associated with any deaths or injuries derived from Y2K problems
Litigation filed by clients whose finances or investments have been damaged
Class-action lawsuits filed by various affected customers of computers or software packages
Litigation filed by shareholders of companies whose software does not safely make the year 2000
transition
The following are a list of possible scenarios. Remember, no one knows for sure what will happen
or how severe the problems.
The social security administration could miscalculate the age of citizens, causing payments to be sent to
people who are not eligible for benefits, while those who should be eligible wouldn't receive their payments.
The IRS could miscalculate the standard deduction on its income tax returns for persons over age 65,
causing incorrect records of revenues and payments due.
State and local computer systems could become corrupted with false records, causing errors in income
and property tax records, payroll, retirement systems, motor vehicle registration, utilities regulation, and a
breakdown of some public transportation systems.
Credit cards with expiration dates after the year 2000 could fail the routine credit check performed
when a purchase is made.
Failed communications could cause hazardous health and safety situations.
Data on pharmaceutical drugs with expiration dates after the year 2000 would indicate that the
medication is expired.
Businesses of all types and sizes may make errors in their planning, budget, accounts receivable,
purchasing, accounts payable, revenue, pension/loan forecasts, payroll, material supplies and inventories.
The FAA air traffic controllers could generate erroneous flight schedules that may misguide aircraft
or cause takeoff or landing conflicts.
Your local bank may stop crediting your account with the proper interest, or may retire your outstanding
obligations prematurely. This problem may also affect a financial service firm's ability to clear and settle trade
on a T+3 basis, as well as to process ATM and direct deposit transactions.
Phone calls started just before the end of 1999 that carry over to 2000 could be billed as 52 million
minutes long (60 minutes * 24 hours * 365 days * 99 years).
A food manufacturer that produces a vacuum-packed product with a four year shelf life calculates an
expiration date of "00" for its latest product run. It issues recall notices to its retailers because the date is
less than the current date. This could also happen to the "rework date" on automotive parts. Worse yet,
with automated just-in-time inventory systems, improperly returned parts could shut down an auto production
line for days.
If the problem is so big and complex,
what can I do?
It is big and complex, not impossible. NO ONE knows exactly what will happen. Speculation is based on
actual events that have occurred to date, and the likelihood of their reoccurrence. This is NOT doomsday
by any means. It is, however, potentially one of the most serious problems of our generation, by virtue of
how technologically interconnected and dependent our society has become.
What can you do? Educate yourself so you'll be prepared in the event a serious situation does occur.
Preparation doesn't mean we expect the worst to happen; develop contingency plans.
Why don't we hear more about it?
It's not getting a lot of serious press for the following reasons:
It's perceived as something too big or too impossible to be real, therefore it must just be a lot of hype
-- not serious news.
There are serious implications to the survival of government and financial institutions.
Some directors and managers are fearful of shareholder suits claiming negligence. This is particularly so
because many employee warnings have gone unheeded for years.
Acknowledgment of a serious Y2K problem within a business unit or across an enterprise may cause
clients to flee and competitors to flock.
Some companies are awaiting the leadership of regulatory agencies and/or financial accounting
standards bodies within the federal government.
Many are still trying to figure out what to do, and don't want to appear incapable of dealing with it in
front of their shareholders or customers.
Also, many articles written tend to reside in the business and/or financial sections of newspapers,
overlooked by the general public. Front page headlines it hasn't been.
Is it serious enough to warrant congressional
action?
There have been congressional hearings for months. My personal favorite is
Ann K. Couffou's testimony before the Subcommittee on Technology
and Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology.
Many in Congress would prefer to let industry solve technical issues of this sort, allowing market forces to
work and avoiding cost subsidies and counterproductive regulation. Others are concerned that this problem
is so pervasive that it could affect the entire nation, including Federal, state and local government, businesses,
and personal activities, with potentially harmful consequences to the overall economy.
Some Congressional members have expressed an interest in using legislation to help reduce the negative
effects of what may become a crisis situation. A few are concerned that media sensationalism could effect
consumer confidence in institutions such as banks, and in public institutions that provide services to citizens.
Effective leadership and management by Federal officials and communication by policy makers could
mitigate those effects.
Why isn't new hardware and software Y2K
compliant?
There is no legislation actually requiring hardware and software manufacturers to produce and sell Y2K
compliant products. There is no labeling that will inform the public as to whether what they are buying will
work come the next millennium.
Remember, non-compliant software is still being sold by IBM, Microsoft, etc. Some of the software is billed
s Y2K compliant, however read the fine print. Their definition of "compliance" may not be your definition.
What is Year 2000 compliance?
There is no single definition of what constitutes Y2K compliance!
Individual companies have set their own definitions. Without legislation/guidance from
Federal or State governments, we have to assume an item is non-compliant until proven
otherwise--to our own satisfaction. You must decide what "compliance" means to your business
and press manufacturers for their definition--in writing. Taking a manufacturers' word
their product is compliant will be little comfort if it fails, and/or protect you in a lawsuit.
Why can't someone come up with a "silver bullet"?
- Because there is no one solution to the software problem. That would be like saying you can fix all cars
with a single part or tool. (See Some ways dates are stored.)
If/when vendors
develop a fix for their particular application, they will require you to purchase/upgrade to the new version.
You will not receive a "fix disk" in the mail.
- There is no "fix" for hardware or embedded systems
other than scrapping or replacing the hardware item.
The answer to this is codependency and volume. Regarding software, it's not the single application that must
be fixed, but also all the interfaces to all the other programs it shares data with, as well as the hardware and
peripherals (like printers). Also, the sheer volume of lines of code that must be searched, tested, and
repaired turns a simple job into a major project.
Additionally, the date problem acts as a computer virus. Non-compliant software can "infect" software that
is year 2000 ready--rendering it useless. Also, it's not just the application code itself; screens, forms, index
files, reports, etc., must be changed manually.
Also complicating matters:
Outdated programs and languages
There are approximately 200 obsolescent languages still in use today. In order to change a program,
you need to locate the source code. Is it the same version that created the program? It's difficult to find out,
even if you can locate the source code.
Machine language
Computer programs are written in a language humans understand known as "source code". Source code
is not understood by machines and must be "assembled", "compiled" or translated/interpreted into machine
language (also known as machine code or assembly language). If the source code is lost or corrupted, the
machine code can not be updated unless the source code is recreated; a very expensive and time consuming
process. The older the program, the more likely this will occur.
Who will/should fix it?
Should and will are two different matters. Many take the view it shouldn't have happened to begin with.
Others say we only have ourselves to blame for ignoring warnings going back 20 years or more.
The answer is--at this late date, we have no choice but to try to fix or minimize any Y2K problems for
ourselves. There simply is not enough time nor resources to rely on the vendors of the products to fix it
for us.
Are there any tests to see if I have a problem?
- You do have a problem. We all do, either directly or indirectly.
- Tests for PC's have sprung up in newspaper and magazine articles. However, these ONLY test the
system software, not your applications. Also, under certain conditions, the test itself can be hazardous to your
system -- particularly if the computer is networked. Experts recommend NOT testing your PC without fully
understanding how and what the test will do.
But, I just bought a new computer!
If it's a MAC, you're probably better off than most. If it's an IBM or clone, you need to contact the
manufacturer to find out if that particular machine (hardware) is compliant, then speak to the software
manufacturers to find out about the applications.
Can I fix it myself?
It is possible to develop fix and/or replace strategies yourself with enough information, time, money, technical
resource, and single-minded dedication. You may also hire a (reputable) Y2K Service Provider.
Also, while correcting the year field is technically simple, the process of analyzing, correcting, testing and
integrating software and hardware among all computer systems that interact, is a very complex management
task. Don't think that hiring someone else to do the task will relieve you of project management responsibilities.
Why not replace everything?
It is an option, though a costly one; not a likely choice for companies with narrow profit margins. Also, not all
hardware and software is compliant yet. For example, IBM has made public that it is still selling hardware
and software that isn't compliant, and will continue to do so until 1998.
How do I protect my fixed systems from Y2K date contamination?
Any data sharing is a risk even without Y2K problems. Since there are no date standards in place, even
another compliant system may have an adverse effect on yours. This because they may have a different
definition of compliance, or are using a different "fix" than yours.
Here are a few guidelines:
Don't read or upload any old (pre-compliant) data on a compliant system, unless it has been made
compliant first.
Don't share data directly between one system and another unless the interface has successfully passed
compliance tests.
Don't share data between applications unless it has tested successfully.
Don't download information from other sources (e.g. the Internet) unless you're positive it's virus free
and compliant with your system.
Don't load any software if you don't have proof of Y2K compliancy, including off-the-shelf software
from major software manufacturers.
Don't attach any new systems to yours without testing it for compliancy. (This includes printers, fax
machines, laptops, etc.)
Don't install any new hardware unless it's certified Y2K compliant (e.g. internal modems, overdrive
chips, etc.)
Is there anything good about the Year 2000 problem?
Amazingly, the answer is YES! Here are a few benefits:
From a personal/social standpoint--
We're being forced to take hold of the reins of our headlong rush into new, bigger, and better. Up till now,
new technology has forced many of us to run just to keep up; never giving us a chance to ask "if" we
should do something, rather than "can we". It also prevented us from questioning the quality of the technology.
We've been too busy trying to stay current to hold hardware and software developers feet to the flames
for giving us products with often times more bugs than benefits.
From a business standpoint--
For the first time, business will have a comprehensive overview of the entire computing resource that drives
and supports the organization. So armed, business can finally understand exactly how much and in what ways
the organization depends on technology. This might convince some to stop viewing technology as an overhead
expense and start treating it as a capital investment.
Other benefits:
Businesses will have an opportunity to become wiser and more efficient in their use of technology.
The Y2K mitigation process will secure productivity tools and impose rigor on business processes;
thereby reducing costs and improving efficiency.
For getting a handle on software inventory will turn out to be just as important as tracking inventory
supplies and work and just as profitable. Companies will be able to eliminate marginal functions that serve
little purpose.
At the end process, companies will know precisely which of their computer applications are important.
This will help determine how to prioritize future investments.
Businesses will gain leverage to buy out competitors.
Standardizing and improving quality are inevitable outcomes.
Marginally profitable products will be identified and eliminated.
Working with suppliers, vendors and customers will help companies reduce future data exchange
problems.
Ensuring they don't have Y2K problems will net long-term goodwill rewards, as everyone realizes their
mutual business dependency.
Identifying and eliminating unnecessary reports and business functions.
Identifying and eliminating ancient hardware and software will eliminate IT headaches.
Consolidating data libraries and eliminating just-in-case data storage will enable some companies to
recover up to 40 percent of their program storage space.
The required application of configuration management techniques to oversee system software, tools, and
vendor application packages will cut down on labor costs.
This page created and mantained by
Shawn Astels
©Copyright 1998 Shawn Astels
Y2K System Compliance Test Software Download