The Ovine File

By Mack & Tosh

I’m not getting this....
Okay...so Bill honed up and admitted he had been tapping Thunder Thighs...Ken nailed his 99 theses to the doors of the cathedral in Whittenburg...
Meanwhile the world has fallen into utter economic ruin, there has been a bloodless coup in Russia and there are wars raging in sub-Saharan Africa...
Sometime around Thanksgiving people are going to wake up and realize that our economy is fucked because we’ve been caught up in watching Bill, Monica and The Cigar...
Following the collapse of the Thai Baht and the most of the other Southeast Asian currencies, as well as the political drama of Pol Pot ("don’t forget to pack a wife"---thanks Jello for your foresight) last summer, the world's currency markets have been continuously rocked.  That has had a deleterious effect on global economic stability.  Unfortunately we were watching Bill, Monica and Ken tap dance to the tune of "Who stained whom."  The Bulls are still on parade, foolishly thinking that corporate revenues shall continue to flourish as they had before this crisis.
Most of the European and Eastern markets are so heavily wed to the "emerging markets" in SE Asia, that they have been going tits up for the last 12 months.  It has been a slow process, but by December we should finally be seeing the true impact of this downward spiral.  Global currency rates relative to the dollar have been falling radically, and will result in negative price pressures affecting the volume of goods that will be sold overseas.  This of course will affect corporate earnings domestically, and as various boards of directors try to ensure 10% growth, will begin either cutting jobs and production or increasing domestic prices until profitability can once again be assured.  Let me say that again....CUTTING JOBS...RAISING PRICES.
Most of us are in the market these days either directly or as participants in various mutual funds.  We may secretly long for high values on our investments, but are we looking at the short term as well?  As instability spreads, people will begin pulling out of the market as a safeguard against their future.  This has recently resulted in one of the largest point drops in the history of the Dow.   True there has been a resurgence, as the fund managers speak of "opportunity", yet the reality is that the market is highly over-valued, and in the face of economic instability abroad primed for an even larger "correction."
The financial crisis in Russia is perhaps a more frightening prospect in the long run.  The democratic process has been slow to prosper in the former Soviet state, and with the burgeoning black market, is in trouble trying to generate tax revenues.
The Rodina (along with most of Europe) has always  needed a strong father figure in state politics.  Democracy is contrary to thousands of years of cultural history.  Without the firm hand of the committee for state security (the KGB), private enterprise (read the mafia and black market—ironically led by members of the old KGB) has evolved into the prime mover of the Russian economy.  The citizenry sensing this, and the troubles that will ensue if this growth is not checked, have been leading back to a more centralized system of government.
Sure I was a Commie in high school and college, and still am.  But the realities of self-determination and global stability that have resulted in the post cold war era far outweigh my ideological commitment to Karl and Fred.
Big Bad Boris this week was forced by his parliament to nominate the former head of the KGB (Yevgeny Primakov)  as his Prime Minister, as well as two former communists to head his economic policy team.  Is there anyone else who is beginning to see the handwriting on the wall? The Russian Duma (or lower house of parliament) is heavily Communist, and more directly reflects the will of the people much as the House of Representatives does in the US.  The masses are looking for a hand of Stalin (steel) to guide them out of an uncertain future, and no one seems to see the threat for what it is.
We’ve all been patting ourselves on the back since the wall came down, but lest we forget the mistakes of history, the reason why we’re experiencing economic growth is primarily because we are not having to deal with the Bear over the Elbe and across the Steppes.
The International Monetary Fund has approved aid packages to both the Asian markets as well as Russia.  Will they be enough to restore some stability to the regions?  Are we trying to fix both using the principles of one?  The instability in Asia is the result of poor fiscal management and over-development.  The problems in Russia seem to be an inefficient revenue collection system, and general lack of faith in the government. Russia lacks direction internally on political issues as well as fiscal policy.  There is a feeling that true free enterprise will save the day, but do these guys in Moscow know that there has not EVER been a true system of free enterprise in the recorded history of man.  Primakov seems to have an understanding of this.  In his acceptance speech he said his task was similar to that of FDR in 1933.  He will be trying to achieve a mix of free market values with state directed planning and distribution.  Hope no one told Yev, that FDR was accused of being a Marxist for his policies following the depression.
And what of the civil war in the Congo?  Africa is so fucked up right now it’s almost frightening. 25% of the populations of some sub-Saharan African countries are infected with HIV.  Political instability is rampant in the continent, and we have tied much of the economic growth of the new millennia to our ability to tap into these markets.  Does anyone around remember the neo-imperialism of the 19th Century.  European empires crumbled because they were caught up in trying to exploit markets in Africa and Asia.
Where did the most heinous example of western exploitation lay....yes in the Belgian Congo.
Leopold II began raping the continent, and the rest of Europe joined in like it was at a frat party during rush week.  Civil war and insurrection have not stopped since the formal exploration of Africa began in the mid-1800’s. And the lingering "Western" legacy is one of mistrust, anger, increased internal ethnic tensions, and unfulfilled economic promises.  And this is where we’re placing our hope for prosperity in the 21st Century. Oh Jesus!
Africa has been in turmoil since the turn of the Century primarily due to previous Western exploitation.  We seem to be trying to democratize a region that has resisted previous attempts at this, and still wants to cling to tribal loyalties. By dealing with the what WE want to see, instead of what will work best for the region, we are acting in a short-sighted manner that will only result in further catastrophe for both US interests and the indigenous peoples.
To recap...American investors  (and many Western Governments) looking only for short-term economic returns have invested heavily in the emerging markets of Asia, Russia, and Africa.  The collapse of one, has led to turmoil in the others.
Okay so then what’s the next step?
I feel that we need to assist the stabilization of the Asian markets, specifically enforcing low-growth initiatives until there is some sort of repayment on existing debt and signs that prolonged economic growth has returned to the region.  The "make work" programs must stop, and true solvency must begin to take hold rather than relying on pie-in-the sky forecasting.
At some point the role of China must also be discussed as she is the true sleeping giant of the 21st Century.  Dogmatism has no place in the global markets, and Beijing needs to get with the "p-g" asap.  Much of their reluctance stems from previous encounters with the West (read the Opium War).  They long for self-determination and a place in the sun of their own.  Their resistance to Western involvement is more of a cultural fear than an economic one.  They do not want to become subservient to any 2nd party.  They feel that they have a legitimate claim to the title of "Master of the East."  They do, however holding onto the vestiges of Marxist theory, and a valid cultural predilection towards xenophobia will hinder them in this pursuit.  They are still acting under a cold war mentality in their economic policy.  We must assuage their fears, and work towards a policy of open and honest cooperation. If not, their economy in the long run WILL dominate those in the West, and with that freedom, they will have a free hand to act politically and militarily in any manner they choose.  They will continue to openly defy Western policy as they assert their independence.
Russia...hmmm...okay....they have ethnic instability in many of the frontier states, and a tremendous crime problem that must be addressed.  They also have a tremendous amount of untapped natural resources at their disposal, and a huge, hungry population that could easily be developed into a market for Western goods.  Some autonomy, and greater freedoms are needed to calm the former, and a responsive, consistent government for the latter. Following the fall of Communism, there seemed to exist a belief that capitalism and democracy were about total freedom.  They’re not.  We’ve had over 220 years of experience at fine-tuning those philosophies to meet the needs of the American public.   Much as there has never been true capitalism in the economic arena, there has never been true democracy in the political sphere.
As mother Russia grows away from her "Evil" past, hopefully she will begin to understand that public and economic policy evolve as an unending series of compromises between control and freedom.  What market controls that are adopted, and which freedoms are co-opted for security will define how Russia pursues their version of "The Great Experiment."
The Middle East.  As much as a pain in the ass as Saddam is, we will never make a serious attempt to remove him from power.  His secular ass is the only thing preventing a regional consolidation of Islamic interests in the region, and thus prevents a unified jihad against Israel, and thus the West.  Better to wag the dog, then kill the son of a bitch.
Africa.  Even tougher.  Possibly a federation of tribal councils that can work with the few surviving democratic governments to determine a consistent unified regional policy.  Without it, any serious investment in the region is high-risk at best.  The region (hell any region) needs political stability and consistency to function effectively.
This is why despite all of the rhetoric associated with American politics, very little ever changes if there is a shift of power between the two dominant parties.  Without this stability, the goals and policies of the continent will shift on the winds of public opinion and the world arms market.
At some point we also need to address the EU.  They too are a tiger waiting for freedom.  If they can grow beyond the rivalries that pre-date the Napoleonic era, they will dominate world trade.  They are dealing first-hand with the realities of cleaning up the faults of Marxist theory.  The ethnicity issues are similar to those prior to the first and second World Wars, and unfortunately little has changed in how the respective governments are responding.  There has been much positive growth however, yet I wonder if Clemens von Metternich is silently smiling in his grave somewhere as he looks at this new Concert.
America, there is brewing a great sea of discontent across every ocean on our borders, and yet we sit watching the televised reports of Bill, Monica, and Ken as they supplant Jerry in ratings.  I hope you had a good nap.

Wolves Have Descended Upon The Flock

Home    The Topic Of The Week    Views Of Your World    Mental Subversion  Pure Running Sap

The Pompous Bastard    The First Folio    The Geek Page    Friends Of The Truth