Haifa, 6-Oct-97

Dear Charles B.,

There is a current worry in high circles about Iran's preparation for war. As far as I am concerned, there exists a sound basis for such concern. Problem is, Iran is preparing to defend herself in a war AGAINST HER!
William Saphire (The New York Times, Sept. 28, IE 7 ) uses a 'simple logic' to analyze Iran's bellicose means in order to conclude about her ends, by stating that by knowing the range of Iran's missiles, it can be decided that she intends to attack countries within that range. Well, yes and no! How so?

1. Why should Iran be interested in waging war? Just think about the consequences for its economy in a war that offers her no tangible reward. Iran is not governed by a dictator bent on capturing a rich, neighboring country, nor on aggrandizing his own name.

2. Iran's long-term strategy is to impose her hegemony by dint of patience and cunning. But her hegemony is of an unusual quality. It is religion, it is Islam, and it is her own conception of Islam.

3. Thus, Iran is preparing for the contingency of a war, yes, but waged against her! She just wishes to show any power or any other potential enemy that she means business, and that she is acting within the confines of the law. And indeed she is!

4. Iran's ayatollahs are firm believers in a fundamentalist Islam, as demonstrated by Hamas, Hisbullah and Jihad organizations, all of them created by a selected few. These organizations' members do not know who is handling the ropes and pulling the threads.

5. At this moment, Iran's innermost circle of ayatollahs is debating if Sheik Yassin should be put back in charge of the political arm of Hamas in the PA territory.

6. Iran plans first to control Lebanon through a revolutionary Islamic takeover. The following steps are not so clear, but Egypt is in line. The final results of the Algeria maelstrom, financed and orchestrated by Iran, will determine the next steps.

7. Iran's ayatollahs feel the tickling of anticipated past Persian glory's renewal; they do not care much for Arab past glory, only for a future Islam under their own aegis.

8. Syria is deeply worried. Assad has no long-term policy; he wants to recuperate the Golan Heights in his own time. Peace overtures in the very near future will reflect his worry about Iran's Hisbullah and other 'useful idiots' like Amal and sunder terrorists creating a critical situation forcing him to act against them before Israel declares her willingness to cede.

9. For that reason, Israel must stay put, because Syria will have to become more flexible in her negotiating posture, once Assad deems necessary to destroy Hisbullah.

10. The coming century will see a new kind of cold war, with new performers, including Islamic Arab countries sending their spies to Israel, to be trained by the Mossad against Iran.

11. As an apart: The Mossad made now another mistake. I sent a fax to one of Israel P.M.'s policy advisers with whom I used to correspond, calling his attention to the fact that the Arabs used to pull us out of our stupidities by doing something even stupider, and that there ought to be a concealed redeeming value for the use of Canadian passports to enter Jordan at this precise time (to eliminate a Hamas top leader), for otherwise such action would be just another link in a sort of deterministic chain of sickening botched antiterrorist acts.

12. The only redeeming features, as far as I can be able to envision, is that:
First, the Canadian government will hurry to bury the incident, lest Canada's recent past policy of receiving well-known Nazi Jew-killers with open arms --and of employing one of them to accept Nazis and reject Jews-- be splashed all over the news, as it happened to Switzerland over her own criminal behavior.
Second, Jordan gave honorable refuge to a Hamas leader guilty of planning indiscriminate murder in and out of Israel. The King knows well that Iran is behind Hamas, yet he must play his game of survival for himself and for his family. Israel has been his savior and is counted upon for future need. His seemingly kind reaction of late is rather easy to understand, considering his past murderous feelings toward Israel.